Crypto Portfolio Simulator
Design and simulate your ideal crypto portfolio with Monte Carlo analysis, rebalancing strategies, and comprehensive risk metrics.
Build Your Portfolio
Simulation Results (Monte Carlo - 100 Paths)
Allocation Breakdown
Strategy Comparison
| Strategy | Final Value | Return |
|---|---|---|
Your Portfolio | $28,369.28 | +28.95% |
BTC Only | $26,469.08 | +20.31% |
ETH Only | $27,027.12 | +22.85% |
S&P 500 | $23,375.12 | +6.25% |
Rebalancing Impact Analysis
| Strategy | Final Value | Total Return | Max Drawdown | Sharpe Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rebalance Never | $28,369.28 | +28.95% | +0.00% | 0.78 |
| Rebalance Monthly | $27,801.89 | +26.37% | +0.00% | 0.82 |
| Rebalance Quarterly | $28,227.43 | +28.31% | +0.00% | 0.80 |
Risk Analysis
Value at Risk (VaR)
With 95% confidence, you won't lose more than $0 in the worst case.
Maximum Drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline from your highest portfolio value during the simulation period.
Diversification Score
Measures how well your portfolio is distributed across assets. Higher is better.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Monte Carlo Simulation in portfolio analysis?
Monte Carlo simulation runs thousands of random scenarios based on historical volatility and correlations to show potential portfolio outcomes. This helps visualize best-case, worst-case, and median scenarios rather than relying on a single prediction.
What does Sharpe Ratio measure?
The Sharpe Ratio measures risk-adjusted returns by comparing your excess return (above risk-free rate) to volatility. Higher ratios indicate better risk-adjusted performance. A ratio above 1.0 is generally considered good.
What is the difference between rebalancing strategies?
Never rebalancing lets winners run but concentrates risk. Monthly rebalancing keeps allocations tight but increases trading costs. Quarterly rebalancing balances these factors, typically optimizing risk-adjusted returns.
How does diversification reduce risk?
Diversification reduces portfolio volatility because assets don't move perfectly together (low correlation). When one asset drops, others may rise, smoothing overall returns. This is the "correlation benefit" shown in the dashboard.
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
VaR at 95% confidence shows the portfolio value at which only 5% of simulated outcomes fall below. It helps you understand maximum expected losses under typical market conditions.
Should I include monthly DCA in my simulation?
Yes. Setting monthly DCA amounts makes the simulation more realistic if you invest regularly. It also demonstrates how consistent contributions compound over time and can reduce impact of poor timing.