Crypto Portfolio Simulator

Design and simulate your ideal crypto portfolio with Monte Carlo analysis, rebalancing strategies, and comprehensive risk metrics.

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Build Your Portfolio

BTC
40.0%
ETH
30.0%
SOL
15.0%
LINK
15.0%
Total Allocation: 100.0%
Expected Annual Return
+51.00%
Based on historical trends
Volatility (Risk)
+59.94%
Standard deviation
Sharpe Ratio
0.78
Risk-adjusted returns
Max Drawdown
+0.00%
Worst decline
Value at Risk (95%)
$14,377.36
5% loss threshold
Diversification Score
94%
Portfolio balance
Correlation Benefit
+18.00%
Volatility reduction
Final Median Value
$28,369.28
50th percentile outcome

Simulation Results (Monte Carlo - 100 Paths)

Blue area shows 90% confidence band (5th-95th percentile). Line shows median outcome.

Allocation Breakdown

BTC
40.0%
ETH
30.0%
SOL
15.0%
LINK
15.0%

Strategy Comparison

StrategyFinal ValueReturn
Your Portfolio
$28,369.28+28.95%
BTC Only
$26,469.08+20.31%
ETH Only
$27,027.12+22.85%
S&P 500
$23,375.12+6.25%

Rebalancing Impact Analysis

StrategyFinal ValueTotal ReturnMax DrawdownSharpe Ratio
Rebalance Never$28,369.28+28.95%+0.00%0.78
Rebalance Monthly$27,801.89+26.37%+0.00%0.82
Rebalance Quarterly$28,227.43+28.31%+0.00%0.80
Rebalancing locks in gains and reduces risk by trimming winners. More frequent rebalancing slightly reduces volatility but may increase trading costs.

Risk Analysis

Value at Risk (VaR)

With 95% confidence, you won't lose more than $0 in the worst case.

Worst Case Portfolio:
$14,377.36

Maximum Drawdown

Peak-to-trough decline from your highest portfolio value during the simulation period.

Worst Decline:
+0.00%

Diversification Score

Measures how well your portfolio is distributed across assets. Higher is better.

Diversity Level:
94% (Excellent)

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Monte Carlo Simulation in portfolio analysis?

Monte Carlo simulation runs thousands of random scenarios based on historical volatility and correlations to show potential portfolio outcomes. This helps visualize best-case, worst-case, and median scenarios rather than relying on a single prediction.

What does Sharpe Ratio measure?

The Sharpe Ratio measures risk-adjusted returns by comparing your excess return (above risk-free rate) to volatility. Higher ratios indicate better risk-adjusted performance. A ratio above 1.0 is generally considered good.

What is the difference between rebalancing strategies?

Never rebalancing lets winners run but concentrates risk. Monthly rebalancing keeps allocations tight but increases trading costs. Quarterly rebalancing balances these factors, typically optimizing risk-adjusted returns.

How does diversification reduce risk?

Diversification reduces portfolio volatility because assets don't move perfectly together (low correlation). When one asset drops, others may rise, smoothing overall returns. This is the "correlation benefit" shown in the dashboard.

What is Value at Risk (VaR)?

VaR at 95% confidence shows the portfolio value at which only 5% of simulated outcomes fall below. It helps you understand maximum expected losses under typical market conditions.

Should I include monthly DCA in my simulation?

Yes. Setting monthly DCA amounts makes the simulation more realistic if you invest regularly. It also demonstrates how consistent contributions compound over time and can reduce impact of poor timing.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This simulator uses Monte Carlo modeling with historical volatility patterns and simulated data for educational purposes only. Results are not predictions and past performance does not guarantee future results. Actual outcomes depend on market conditions, individual assets, and unforeseen events. This is not financial advice. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.